Winds of Change: Tunisia

Tunisia has started a revolution the world has not seen before. A demand for freedom, for equality, for democracy and proper management by rulers. This type of a revolution has been seen, but only in specific times and at specific countries. This one is far encompassing and global in reach. The Arab world is not a homogeneous entity, even though they share one language, religions and other characteristics; the differences are great in culture, resources, economic development and types of rule. Still the wind that blew from Tunisia is within weeks at the Gulf.

Let us all, and specially the leaders, embrace it and learn fast how to collectively develop a better mechanisms of dialog so we can move forward to develop the new order demanded by the masses.

Winds of Change

A very strong and fast winds of change has hit the Arab world, for now. This new wave of public revolt was not only unexpected, especially in the Arab world, but seems unstoppable. Most of the Arab world for all it's past glory, massive wealth and human resources has stagnated for centuries due to a typeof rule that only thought the world stopped after they took up the leadership and there is nothingbeyond.

Well it is a harsh awakening to them, that the world never stops and there is a tomorrow of change, hope, progress and reform. The lessons being given by the Arab masses are far reaching; and will not be confined to the Arab world.

GCC Food Security

H.E. The Fomer Prime Minister of New Zealand and Former Head of WTO Mr. Mike Moore' comments about food security makes sense. GCC countries cannot buy food security by buying large swathes of land in the Africa or Asia. There will be local enmity; what rates they will be paid? how better production investments will be compared to their local plots? how could you export while there is a local food shortage? Who sold the land? The political elite at the capital! This is a short sighted, short term exercise. Better partner with local populations, the real owners of the land and buy the produce. This is the best security.

Aid to Somalia, Somaliland

Most of he aid s directed towards state enterprises,which either do not exist or only n name.

Policies of pushing humanitarian aid to conflict areas with hope that some will trickle down to the need and target sectors has not worked well. In fact itperpetuates the status quo by empowering the warlords and militias who grab a big chunk and distorts the market economies by under cutting imported or local products.

Better to look for an alternative mechanisms of delivering aid - humanitarian & all.

There could be ways to employ the private sector for most or all of assistances.

Even though 55% of Aid goes to NGOs and 44% to UN which is good,which NGOs? How responsive are they? What local component? How transparent and accountable? NGOs are viewed another international organization (similar to UN) to the local population.The are very much not coupled to local needs!You really hit it right: VERY MUCH TRANSACTION & OVERHEAD CHARGES WHICH GIVES BAD IMAGE TO LOCAL POPULATIONS. NAIROBI COSTS!!!

Pooling of resources targeting collectively same projects and creating joint ventures with private sector.

Creating an advisory board consisting of private sector,elders, religious leaders for ADVISORY,FOLLOW UP, TRANSPARENCY, ACCOUNTABILTIY ON DONNER and RECEIVERS, PUBLICITY and SECURITY,ON PROJECTS & PERSONAL. You very well touched on all of this but just thought to highlight.

Reviews by confidential private sector entities.

As much as possible to target rural sectors,where the needs are far more acute and results more attainable. but needs a novel way to implement.

As you rightly said forget post conflict situation, it partial conflict.

Fighting In Somalia: Mogadishu

Seems Ould Abdalla now heading to NY to ratchet up the fighting. it will not work. No non Somali is willing to fight expect Shabaab supporters. Situation in Mogadishu is worse in several years. No excuses this time Ethiopians are fighting etc. now it is back to 91, the locals are fighting, the exodus of the populace is in big scale and a lot of these will not come back. Mogadishu which was on it's last legs for a long time is finished after this fighting. Salaam

Economic Recession

A lot of talk by experts and government officials: 'the recession is receding', ít bottomed out', 'the rebound has started'.... We must be care full, non of the above and a lot of other claims are TRUE. The fundamentals that made the world economy to collapse was started by the total failure of the US economy; due to mismanagement by private sector managers and the failure of administrators to stop them and to regulate. Same old remedies are not going to work. Today's remedies are just souped up old ones. The fundamentals are not addressed. The other serious new dimension is the pumping of lots of money to resuscitate a dying economy. The remedy will have its own short term effect, too much medicine will give false signs of recovery, but will have its side effects. After a while the economy will be immune to cash injections, thus what do we have? Nothing! What about the side effects, a new toxic hyper inflation, lack of confidence in economic recovery, uncheckable decline. THE MAGIC WILL STOPS WORKING.

The Dow Jones will hover around mid 8000! the danger is when it slides again between end of July and mid September. By then we will be out of magic potion! That is very frightening. A new economic order, a new set of rules, a new regulatory mood and regime is needed. Sorry we have not yet started.

Salaam

Demise of Dubai?

A BBC report has coined this 'Demise of Dubai?' Well it is not so. What is the big surprise? That a recession has hit Dubai? Why not? Dubai is maturing and the economy will expand and recess like all others. The Dubai leadership has done a wonderful experiment in building out of sand and a tiny fishing/trading port a metropolis of global dimensions. Congratulations.

What they need now is to look beyond:

• How to sustain this metropolis?The first phase was the expansion stage, and I feel this was not checked enough but pushed to beyond the long term interest.
• Is all the wonderful infrastructure built needed? For how long?
• Medium and long term study of the size of Dubai?
• Stricter control of any more expansion.
• Provision of open spaces and more greenery to sustain a better quality of life.

Otherwise Dubai will be a big concrete jungle, underutilized, with a big infrastructure that cannot be fully supported. This will be a tragic ending for a noble, commendable experiment.

Salaam